Why Obama Won: Presidential Election Analysis

The numbers are, as of this date, unofficial. Here are the latest figures:

Popular Vote:

Barack Obama-------64,904,451------52.5%

John McCain---------57,063,155------46.2%

Ralph Nader--------------671,182------00.5%

Bob Barr------------------496,153------00.4%

Cynthia McKinney-------145,442------00.1%

Other candidates--not tabulated yet---00.3%


Electoral College Vote:

Barack Obama-------------364---------69%

John McCain---------------162---------31%

Note: With 100% of precincts reported, Missouri's 11 electoral votes have not yet been assigned. McCain has 1,442,673 votes and Obama has 1,436,814 votes. A recount is pending.

What were the main reasons for Obama's victory?

- Iowa. Had Obama not won a surprise victory in the first primary/caucus state, he would have faced a daunting, uphill battle. Had Edwards not come in a surprise second place, knocking front-runner Hillary Clinton into a stunning third place, it is quite likely that she would have quickly and easily regrouped for the rest of the primaries. Her victory in New Hampshire was not as big of a boost as some thought. New Hampshire residents are very displeased with Iowa usurping media attention every Presidential primary season. So even though polls showed Obama ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire, it was the chance for some New Hampshire voters to thumb their noses at Iowa's choice that resulted in the margin necessary to put Hillary over the top. Hillary, referred to by most media analysts before the primaries as the presumptive Democratic nominee, and ahead of Obama by as much as 25% before Iowa, never fully recovered.

- Message. Obama's was consistent and clear in all major areas - from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the economy to appealing to the best in Americans and providing a real promise of change for the better. McCain's focus varied from 'I was right about the surge' to 'Obama associates with a terrorist' and from 'The fundamentals of our economy are strong' to 'I'm suspending my campaign and rushing to Washington, D.C. to help fix our faltering economy'.

- V.P. choice. Obama chose country over campaign by choosing Joe Biden, a seasoned veteran, well-known to many Americans, and fit to assume the presidency at any time. McCain chose campaign over country by choosing Sarah Palin, a political unknown outside of Alaska, someone whom he hoped would capture disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters at the same time as she tilted the ticket farther to the political right to appease the party's conservatives and 'Christian' fundamentalists.

Instead, his choice offended many female voters, since it assumed that they would march in lockstep with any female candidate, regardless of her views. It also angered those Republicans who recognized that Palin did not have the requisite political knowledge to perform even the somewhat limited duties of a Vice President. There was also disaffection with the fact that McCain bypassed more qualified female Republican Senators and Governors, both past and present, who had been Republican loyalists for many years, who had paid their dues, and who would have provided a more electable ticket. Finally, as Palin's inadequacies became more and more apparent, independent and undecided voters looked again at not only Obama, but Biden, and the comparisons did not bode well for the Republicans.

- Organization. My first-hand knowledge of Obama's Nevada organization will forever remain as one of my most cherished memories. Initially, I 'signed up' as a supporter on Obama's web site. Within a week, I received a phone call from an enthusiastic and persuasive Las Vegas local field organizer, who shall remain nameless to protect her privacy, but who will recognize herself should she read this. The closest office was 12 miles away. I arrived, and expected to see a few young 'believers' who might not exactly be thrilled at seeing a 57 year old white guy. Was I wrong. There were at least 35 people, young, old, racially and ethnically diverse. I was warmly welcomed by all. My field organizer taught me my responsibilities as a volunteer (and soon thereafter as a precinct captain): to whom I would report, meeting dates and conference call schedules, email and text message updates system.

There was joy in the air, even in those early days when it seemed to me as much a quixotic quest as a campaign with a legitimate chance of success. Making phone calls, writing postcards, pounding the pavement loaded down with flyers and brochures and voter lists on which to make those important notes about voter preferences - all the basics of other campaigns I'd been involved in since 1968... but this time it felt different. And it was. The tone and mood set by those overworked field organizers, who always found the energy to listen to our successes and woes and who provided encouragement at every turn, as well as others even higher up on the organization chart, who never failed to stop and say hello to me if they walked by - was, I am certain, not unique to the campaign in Nevada. They gave us their best, and we returned the favor.

- The economy. It would be dishonest to deny the impact that the 'perfect storm' of bad economic news throughout October had on the average American voter's psyche. A tumbling stock market, shrinking retirement plans, rising unemployment, bank and mortgage fears and failures, all combined to nudge an as yet unknown number of voters from undecided to Democrat. Presidents and their political parties always get too much credit when the economy is strong and too much blame when the economy weakens. But that's just the way it is.


Next Friday: Something less serious (world events permitting)